What changed today
Risk rose in Climate over the last 24 hours. Biggest move: Ocean Heat Records Set as El Niño Intensifies (81%→90%).
We read thousands of reports a day, connect them across crises, and re-score where things are heading. Here’s what moved, why, and what’s exposed.
Biggest scenario moves
- Super El Niño sets another record as it strengthens to unprecedented levels → Ocean Heat Records Set as El Niño Intensifies: 81% → 90%
- Philippines volcano erupts, creating 6km-high ash cloud → South China Sea ↔ Water scarcity → Philippines Ferry Fire Disaster: 99% → 80%
- Al Jazeera reports Israeli quadcopter drone drops bomb in Lebanon confirming continued IDF operations. → Gaza ↔ Iran → Israeli Military Expansion Drives Lebanon Escalation: 74% → 61%
- Super El Niño sets another record as it strengthens to unprecedented levels → El Niño 2023-2024: Record Ocean Temperatures and Global Impacts: 78% → 90%
- US inflation rises more than expected → Gaza ↔ United States → Supply Inflation Cascade: 89% → 77%
How to read this page
Crises don’t happen one at a time. Polycrisis tracks seven of them live and the links between them, so a tanker seizure in the Gulf shows up where it matters: in shipping, energy prices and the odds of what comes next.
01 · EVENTSomething happensThousands of reports a day are read, geolocated and de-duplicated into events.
02 · CONNECTIONIt spills overEvents are linked across crises: military, economic, energy, cyber, humanitarian.
03 · SCENARIOThe odds moveHundreds of forward-looking scenarios are re-scored as the evidence changes.
04 · MARKETMoney noticesEach scenario is mapped to the assets historically most sensitive to it.