Signal Velocity measures the rate of change of incoming crisis-relevant information — specifically, how quickly the number of new, geolocated events is accelerating or decelerating relative to the prior 7-day baseline. A positive velocity means the information environment is heating up faster than usual; a negative velocity means it is cooling down.
Rapid acceleration of signals often precedes major events by 12–36 hours, as initial reports, official denials, and third-party confirmations pile up ahead of a confirmed development. Signal Velocity is therefore a leading rather than lagging indicator.
The system counts new events per 6-hour block over the past 48 hours and computes a simple linear regression slope. This slope is divided by the 7-day mean event rate to produce a dimensionless acceleration value. The value is then clamped to the range [−1, +1] and reported. Zero means the current rate exactly matches the baseline; +1 means the rate is doubling or more; −1 means it has nearly ceased.
High (above 0.6): Information is arriving substantially faster than normal. This can indicate a developing crisis, a media surge around an unfolding event, or a genuine uptick in operational activity. Combine with Event Intensity to determine whether the new events are substantive or merely reactive commentary.
Low / negative (below −0.3): Coverage is dropping below baseline. This may reflect genuine de-escalation, a weekend news lull, or — most importantly — a deliberate communications blackout by one of the actors. Negative velocity alongside high Escalation Probability is a red flag combination.
Derived entirely from event insertion timestamps in the POLYCRISIS database. No external data sources required. Updated every 6 hours.
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