🇺🇦 UKRAINE · Assessed probability: 15%
Intensified fighting near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant causes a coolant system failure and partial meltdown. A radioactive plume drifts over NATO member states, triggering an Article 5 debate — is nuclear fallout an "armed attack"? IAEA · Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
40 decision nodes tracked with escalation paths and probability assessments.
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