🌍 Climate · Assessed probability: 15%
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — the ocean conveyor belt that keeps Europe warm — collapses or severely weakens. Recent studies suggest this could happen between 2025-2095, with a central estimate around 2050. Consequences: European cooling of 5-10°C, Sahel mega-drought, Amazon dieback, accelerated sea-level rise on US East Coast.
39 decision nodes tracked with escalation paths and probability assessments.
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