GAZA · Assessed probability: 45%
All humanitarian aid routes into Gaza are severed simultaneously. Israel closes Rafah and Kerem Abu Salem crossings, UNRWA is defunded and banned. The UN officially declares famine across the entire Gaza Strip. ICC arrest warrants trigger a diplomatic crisis as EU member states face legal obligations to enforce them, rupturing the US-EU alliance and accelerating a Global South realignment.
25 decision nodes tracked with escalation paths and probability assessments.
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