← South China Sea Overview

Accidental Escalation

🌊 South China Sea · Assessed probability: 20%

FONOP collision, mid-air incident, or miscalculation spirals into armed confrontation.

Decision Tree Analysis

29 decision nodes tracked with escalation paths and probability assessments.

View full analysis in dashboard →

Other Scenarios

Second Thomas Shoal EscalationTaiwan ContingencySubmarine Cable SabotageRare Earth Embargo

Get the full picture

Real-time scenario tracking, decision trees, event mapping, and market correlations.

Open Dashboard · API Access

Get the weekly polycrisis briefing

One email a week: the biggest scenario-probability moves, new cross-crisis connections, and what to watch next. Free, unsubscribe anytime.