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← SOUTH CHINA SEA Overview

Taiwan Contingency

🌊 SOUTH CHINA SEA · Assessed probability: 15%

PLA blockade or invasion of Taiwan. Highest-consequence scenario in great-power competition.

Decision Tree Analysis

39 decision nodes tracked with escalation paths and probability assessments.

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Other Scenarios

Second Thomas Shoal EscalationAccidental EscalationSubmarine Cable SabotageRare Earth Embargo

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Real-time scenario tracking, decision trees, event mapping, and market correlations.

Open Dashboard · API Access